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Ergene Velimeşespor vs Eyüpspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Ergene Velimeşespor
Ergene Velimeşespor
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
9/25/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundMustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ergene Velimeşespor30%
×Draw23%
Eyüpspor47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ergene Velimeşespor
1.42
Eyüpspor
1.81

Eyüpspor creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ergene Velimeşespor
0.40
Eyüpspor
1.43

allows per match

Ergene Velimeşespor
2.20
Eyüpspor
2.43

finishing

Ergene Velimeşespor+0.00on par
Eyüpspor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ergene Velimeşespor ↓

Eyüpspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ergene Velimeşespor or draw
53%
Ergene Velimeşespor or Eyüpspor
77%
Draw or Eyüpspor
70%

Winning margin

Ergene Velimeşespor wins by 2+
14%
Eyüpspor wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ergene Velimeşespor 1+ goals
76%
Ergene Velimeşespor 2+ goals
41%
Ergene Velimeşespor 3+ goals
17%
Eyüpspor 1+ goals
84%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
54%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ergene Velimeşespor (draw refunded)
39%
Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ergene Velimeşespor at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ergene Velimeşespor attack 0.40 + Eyüpspor defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Eyüpspor attack 1.43 + Ergene Velimeşespor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ergene Velimeşespor scores more
30%
level
23%
Eyüpspor scores more
47%

Eyüpspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Ergene Velimeşespor 1–4 Eyüpspor

Eyüpspor beat Ergene Velimeşespor 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Mustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu in Velimeşe.