Ergene Velimeşespor 0–1 Elazığ Belediyespor FK

Ergene Velimeşespor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

9/28/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundMustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ergene Velimeşespor19%

×Draw23%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ergene VelimeşesporExpected goals in this matchElazığ Belediyespor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.85

Ergene Velimeşespor

0.95

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

1.85

Elazığ Belediyespor FK creates 95% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

0.40

creates per match

1.50

2.20

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ergene Velimeşespor

0.40

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

1.50

allows per match

Ergene Velimeşespor

2.20

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ergene Velimeşespor+0.00on par

Elazığ Belediyespor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ergene Velimeşespor ↓

Elazığ Belediyespor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ergene Velimeşespor or draw

42%

Ergene Velimeşespor or Elazığ Belediyespor FK

77%

Draw or Elazığ Belediyespor FK

81%

Winning margin

Ergene Velimeşespor wins by 2+

6%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Ergene Velimeşespor 1+ goals

61%

Ergene Velimeşespor 2+ goals

25%

Ergene Velimeşespor 3+ goals

7%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK 1+ goals

84%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK 2+ goals

55%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ergene Velimeşespor (draw refunded)

25%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ergene Velimeşespor at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Elazığ Belediyespor FK away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ergene Velimeşespor attack 0.40 + Elazığ Belediyespor FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.95

Elazığ Belediyespor FK attack 1.50 + Ergene Velimeşespor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ergene Velimeşespor scores more

19%

level

23%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK scores more

58%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Elazığ Belediyespor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff