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Érdi VSE vs Teskánd — NB III - Southwest 2019

Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Teskánd
Teskánd
B. Farkas 58'
M. Bonto 81'
B. Szinay 62'
B. Pergel 55'
R. Szabo 5' (OG)
10/22/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 14Érdi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Érdi VSE57%
×Draw20%
Teskánd23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Érdi VSE
2.25
Teskánd
1.38

Érdi VSE creates 63% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 19 away

creates per match

Érdi VSE
1.54
Teskánd
1.47

allows per match

Érdi VSE
1.28
Teskánd
2.95

finishing

Érdi VSE+0.00on par
Teskánd+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Érdi VSE ↓

Teskánd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Érdi VSE or draw
77%
Érdi VSE or Teskánd
80%
Draw or Teskánd
43%

Winning margin

Érdi VSE wins by 2+
35%
Teskánd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Érdi VSE 1+ goals
89%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
65%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
39%
Teskánd 1+ goals
75%
Teskánd 2+ goals
40%
Teskánd 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
71%
Teskánd (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Érdi VSE at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.28 · 96 matches

Teskánd away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Érdi VSE attack 1.54 + Teskánd defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.25

Teskánd attack 1.47 + Érdi VSE defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Érdi VSE scores more
57%
level
20%
Teskánd scores more
23%

Érdi VSE at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Érdi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
R. SzaboOwn goal
14'
R. Szabo
55'
B. Pergel
58'
B. Farkas
62'
B. Szinay
81'
M. Bonto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Érdi VSE vs Teskánd

Teskánd beat Érdi VSE 4-1 in NB III - Southwest on October 22, 2022.

Goals: R. Szabo (5' o.g.), B. Pergel (55'), B. Farkas (58'), B. Szinay (62'), M. Bonto (81').

The match was played at Érdi Sporttelep in Érd.