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Érdi VSE vs PTE-PEAC — NB III - Southwest 2019

Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PTE-PEAC
PTE-PEAC
9/28/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 9Novák Ferenc Érdi Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Érdi VSE54%
×Draw23%
PTE-PEAC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Érdi VSE
1.85
PTE-PEAC
1.15

Érdi VSE creates 61% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

creates per match

Érdi VSE
1.60
PTE-PEAC
1.02

allows per match

Érdi VSE
1.27
PTE-PEAC
2.11

finishing

Érdi VSE+0.00on par
PTE-PEAC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Érdi VSE ↓

PTE-PEAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Érdi VSE or draw
76%
Érdi VSE or PTE-PEAC
77%
Draw or PTE-PEAC
46%

Winning margin

Érdi VSE wins by 2+
30%
PTE-PEAC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Érdi VSE 1+ goals
84%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
55%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
28%
PTE-PEAC 1+ goals
68%
PTE-PEAC 2+ goals
32%
PTE-PEAC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
69%
PTE-PEAC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Érdi VSE at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

PTE-PEAC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Érdi VSE attack 1.60 + PTE-PEAC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.85

PTE-PEAC attack 1.02 + Érdi VSE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Érdi VSE scores more
54%
level
23%
PTE-PEAC scores more
24%

Érdi VSE at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Érdi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Érdi VSE vs PTE-PEAC

Érdi VSE beat PTE-PEAC 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Novák Ferenc Érdi Sportközpont in Érd.