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Érdi VSE vs Gyirmót II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
3/13/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 25Érdi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Érdi VSE48%
×Draw22%
Gyirmót II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Érdi VSE
1.89
Gyirmót II
1.44

Érdi VSE creates 31% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 38 away

creates per match

Érdi VSE
1.60
Gyirmót II
1.61

allows per match

Érdi VSE
1.27
Gyirmót II
2.18

finishing

Érdi VSE+0.00on par
Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Érdi VSE ↓

Gyirmót II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Érdi VSE or draw
70%
Érdi VSE or Gyirmót II
78%
Draw or Gyirmót II
52%

Winning margin

Érdi VSE wins by 2+
27%
Gyirmót II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Érdi VSE 1+ goals
85%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
56%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
29%
Gyirmót II 1+ goals
76%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
42%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
62%
Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Érdi VSE at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Érdi VSE attack 1.60 + Gyirmót II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.89

Gyirmót II attack 1.61 + Érdi VSE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Érdi VSE scores more
48%
level
22%
Gyirmót II scores more
30%

Érdi VSE at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Érdi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Érdi VSE 4–1 Gyirmót II

Érdi VSE beat Gyirmót II 4-1 in NB III - Southwest on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Érdi Sporttelep in Érd.