Érdi VSE 5–4 Andráshida: Result & Stats

Érdi VSE

FT

5 – 4

Andráshida

10/20/2021

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 13Érdi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Érdi VSE78%

×Draw13%

Andráshida9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Érdi VSEExpected goals in this matchAndráshida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.08

0.96

Érdi VSE

3.08

Andráshida

0.96

Érdi VSE creates 221% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 19 away

1.54

creates per match

0.63

1.28

allows per match

4.63

creates per match

Érdi VSE

1.54

Andráshida

0.63

allows per match

Érdi VSE

1.28

Andráshida

4.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Érdi VSE+0.00on par

Andráshida+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Érdi VSE ↓

Andráshida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Érdi VSE or draw

91%

Érdi VSE or Andráshida

87%

Draw or Andráshida

22%

Winning margin

Érdi VSE wins by 2+

59%

Andráshida wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Érdi VSE 1+ goals

95%

Érdi VSE 2+ goals

81%

Érdi VSE 3+ goals

58%

Andráshida 1+ goals

62%

Andráshida 2+ goals

25%

Andráshida 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Érdi VSE (draw refunded)

90%

Andráshida (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Érdi VSE at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Andráshida away — creates 0.63, concedes 4.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Érdi VSE attack 1.54 + Andráshida defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 3.08

Andráshida attack 0.63 + Érdi VSE defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Érdi VSE scores more

78%

level

13%

Andráshida scores more

9%

Érdi VSE at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Érdi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff