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Erchim vs Tuv buganuud — Premier League 2020

Erchim
Erchim
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Tuv buganuud
Tuv buganuud
5/27/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Erchim38%
×Draw19%
Tuv buganuud43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erchim
2.28
Tuv buganuud
2.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 23 away

creates per match

Erchim
2.47
Tuv buganuud
3.04

allows per match

Erchim
1.78
Tuv buganuud
2.09

finishing

Erchim+0.00on par
Tuv buganuud+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erchim ↓

Tuv buganuud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Erchim or draw
57%
Erchim or Tuv buganuud
81%
Draw or Tuv buganuud
62%

Winning margin

Erchim wins by 2+
21%
Tuv buganuud wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Erchim 1+ goals
90%
Erchim 2+ goals
66%
Erchim 3+ goals
39%
Tuv buganuud 1+ goals
91%
Tuv buganuud 2+ goals
69%
Tuv buganuud 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Erchim (draw refunded)
47%
Tuv buganuud (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erchim at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

Tuv buganuud away — creates 3.04, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erchim attack 2.47 + Tuv buganuud defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.28

Tuv buganuud attack 3.04 + Erchim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Erchim scores more
38%
level
19%
Tuv buganuud scores more
43%

Tuv buganuud at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tuv buganuud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erchim vs Tuv buganuud

Tuv buganuud beat Erchim 4-2 in Premier League on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.