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Erchim vs Lions — Premier League 2020

Erchim
Erchim
FT
1 – 2
Lions
Lions
9/14/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Erchim63%
×Draw16%
Lions20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erchim
3.07
Lions
1.73

Erchim creates 77% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 18 away

creates per match

Erchim
2.47
Lions
1.67

allows per match

Erchim
1.78
Lions
3.67

finishing

Erchim+0.00on par
Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erchim ↓

Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Erchim or draw
80%
Erchim or Lions
84%
Draw or Lions
37%

Winning margin

Erchim wins by 2+
44%
Lions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Erchim 1+ goals
95%
Erchim 2+ goals
80%
Erchim 3+ goals
58%
Lions 1+ goals
82%
Lions 2+ goals
52%
Lions 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Erchim (draw refunded)
76%
Lions (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erchim at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

Lions away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erchim attack 2.47 + Lions defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.07

Lions attack 1.67 + Erchim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Erchim scores more
63%
level
16%
Lions scores more
20%

Erchim at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erchim vs Lions

Lions beat Erchim 2-1 in Premier League on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.