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Erchim vs Khangarid — Premier League 2020

Erchim
Erchim
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Khangarid
Khangarid
4/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Erchim42%
×Draw20%
Khangarid37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erchim
2.16
Khangarid
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 81 away

creates per match

Erchim
2.47
Khangarid
2.26

allows per match

Erchim
1.78
Khangarid
1.85

finishing

Erchim+0.00on par
Khangarid+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erchim ↓

Khangarid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Erchim or draw
63%
Erchim or Khangarid
80%
Draw or Khangarid
58%

Winning margin

Erchim wins by 2+
24%
Khangarid wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Erchim 1+ goals
88%
Erchim 2+ goals
63%
Erchim 3+ goals
36%
Khangarid 1+ goals
87%
Khangarid 2+ goals
60%
Khangarid 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Erchim (draw refunded)
53%
Khangarid (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erchim at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

Khangarid away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.85 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erchim attack 2.47 + Khangarid defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.16

Khangarid attack 2.26 + Erchim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Erchim scores more
42%
level
20%
Khangarid scores more
37%

Erchim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Erchim 2–3 Khangarid

Khangarid beat Erchim 3-2 in Premier League on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.