Erchim 0–4 Central Stallions: Result & Stats

Erchim

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Central Stallions

6/15/2025

Premier League · Round 19Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Erchim50%

×Draw19%

Central Stallions31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ErchimExpected goals in this matchCentral Stallions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

2.00

Erchim

2.53

Central Stallions

2.00

Erchim creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 38 away

2.47

creates per match

2.21

1.78

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Erchim

2.47

Central Stallions

2.21

allows per match

Erchim

1.78

Central Stallions

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erchim+0.00on par

Central Stallions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erchim ↓

Central Stallions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Erchim or draw

69%

Erchim or Central Stallions

81%

Draw or Central Stallions

50%

Winning margin

Erchim wins by 2+

31%

Central Stallions wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Erchim 1+ goals

92%

Erchim 2+ goals

71%

Erchim 3+ goals

46%

Central Stallions 1+ goals

86%

Central Stallions 2+ goals

59%

Central Stallions 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Erchim (draw refunded)

61%

Central Stallions (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erchim at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

Central Stallions away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erchim attack 2.47 + Central Stallions defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.53

Central Stallions attack 2.21 + Erchim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Erchim scores more

50%

level

19%

Central Stallions scores more

31%

Erchim at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff