Erchim 3–5 Bayanzürkh Sporting: Result & Stats

Erchim

FT

3 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Bayanzürkh Sporting

7/9/2025

Premier League · Round 25Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Erchim51%

×Draw19%

Bayanzürkh Sporting31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ErchimExpected goals in this matchBayanzürkh Sporting

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

2.04

Erchim

2.63

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.04

Erchim creates 29% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 28 away

2.47

creates per match

2.29

1.78

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Erchim

2.47

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.29

allows per match

Erchim

1.78

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erchim+0.00on par

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erchim ↓

Bayanzürkh Sporting →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Erchim or draw

69%

Erchim or Bayanzürkh Sporting

81%

Draw or Bayanzürkh Sporting

49%

Winning margin

Erchim wins by 2+

32%

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Erchim 1+ goals

93%

Erchim 2+ goals

73%

Erchim 3+ goals

48%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals

87%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals

60%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Erchim (draw refunded)

62%

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erchim at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erchim attack 2.47 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.63

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 2.29 + Erchim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Erchim scores more

51%

level

19%

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more

31%

Erchim at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff