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Erchim vs Bavarians — Premier League 2020

Erchim
Erchim
FT
7 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bavarians
Bavarians
4/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Erchim75%
×Draw13%
Bavarians12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erchim
3.58
Bavarians
1.46

Erchim creates 145% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 13 away

creates per match

Erchim
2.47
Bavarians
1.15

allows per match

Erchim
1.78
Bavarians
4.69

finishing

Erchim+0.00on par
Bavarians+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erchim ↓

Bavarians →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Erchim or draw
88%
Erchim or Bavarians
87%
Draw or Bavarians
25%

Winning margin

Erchim wins by 2+
57%
Bavarians wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Erchim 1+ goals
97%
Erchim 2+ goals
86%
Erchim 3+ goals
67%
Bavarians 1+ goals
77%
Bavarians 2+ goals
43%
Bavarians 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Erchim (draw refunded)
86%
Bavarians (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erchim at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

Bavarians away — creates 1.15, concedes 4.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erchim attack 2.47 + Bavarians defence 4.69 → ÷2 → 3.58

Bavarians attack 1.15 + Erchim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Erchim scores more
75%
level
13%
Bavarians scores more
12%

Erchim at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erchim vs Bavarians

Erchim beat Bavarians 7-1 in Premier League on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.