Erbil 0–1 Naft Maysan: Result & Stats

Erbil

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Naft Maysan

12/13/2020

Iraqi League · Round 8Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Erbil43%

×Draw28%

Naft Maysan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ErbilExpected goals in this matchNaft Maysan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.02

Erbil

1.31

Naft Maysan

1.02

Erbil creates 28% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

1.31

creates per match

1.06

0.99

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Erbil

1.31

Naft Maysan

1.06

allows per match

Erbil

0.99

Naft Maysan

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par

Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Naft Maysan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Erbil or draw

71%

Erbil or Naft Maysan

72%

Draw or Naft Maysan

57%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+

20%

Naft Maysan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals

73%

Erbil 2+ goals

38%

Erbil 3+ goals

14%

Naft Maysan 1+ goals

64%

Naft Maysan 2+ goals

27%

Naft Maysan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)

60%

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 112 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.31 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Erbil defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Erbil scores more

43%

level

28%

Naft Maysan scores more

29%

Erbil at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff