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Erbil vs Al Simawa — Iraqi League 2020

Erbil
Erbil
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Simawa
Al Simawa
12/3/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 6Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Erbil59%
×Draw24%
Al Simawa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbil
1.68
Al Simawa
0.76

Erbil creates 121% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

creates per match

Erbil
1.31
Al Simawa
0.53

allows per match

Erbil
0.99
Al Simawa
2.05

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par
Al Simawa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Al Simawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Erbil or draw
83%
Erbil or Al Simawa
76%
Draw or Al Simawa
41%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+
33%
Al Simawa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals
81%
Erbil 2+ goals
50%
Erbil 3+ goals
24%
Al Simawa 1+ goals
53%
Al Simawa 2+ goals
18%
Al Simawa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)
78%
Al Simawa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 112 matches

Al Simawa away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.31 + Al Simawa defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.68

Al Simawa attack 0.53 + Erbil defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Erbil scores more
59%
level
24%
Al Simawa scores more
17%

Erbil at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Erbil 2–0 Al Simawa

Erbil beat Al Simawa 2-0 in Iraqi League on December 3, 2020.

The match was played at Franso Hariri Stadium in Arbil.