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Erbil vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2025

Erbil
Erbil
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
S. Temirov 76' (pen), 15'
M. Qabeel 47'
A. Zero 41' (OG)
A. Fadhil Abbas 5'
9/15/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Erbil45%
×Draw28%
Al Najaf27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbil
1.35
Al Najaf
0.99

Erbil creates 36% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

creates per match

Erbil
1.29
Al Najaf
0.83

allows per match

Erbil
1.15
Al Najaf
1.41

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Erbil or draw
73%
Erbil or Al Najaf
72%
Draw or Al Najaf
55%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+
21%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals
74%
Erbil 2+ goals
39%
Erbil 3+ goals
15%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
63%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
26%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)
62%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.29 + Al Najaf defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al Najaf attack 0.83 + Erbil defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Erbil scores more
45%
level
28%
Al Najaf scores more
27%

Erbil at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
A. Fadhil Abbas
15'
S. Temirov
41'
A. ZeroOwn goal
47'
M. Qabeel
76'
S. TemirovPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Erbil 3–2 Al Najaf

Erbil beat Al Najaf 3-2 in Iraqi League on September 15, 2025.

Goals: A. Fadhil Abbas (5'), S. Temirov (15', 76' pen), A. Zero (41' o.g.), M. Qabeel (47').

The match was played at Franso Hariri Stadium in Arbil.