Erbil 2–2 Al Minaa Basra: Result & Stats

Erbil

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al Minaa Basra

12/23/2020

Iraqi League · Round 10Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Erbil46%

×Draw28%

Al Minaa Basra26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ErbilExpected goals in this matchAl Minaa Basra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.93

Erbil

1.35

Al Minaa Basra

0.93

Erbil creates 45% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

1.31

creates per match

0.86

0.99

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Erbil

1.31

Al Minaa Basra

0.86

allows per match

Erbil

0.99

Al Minaa Basra

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Al Minaa Basra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Erbil or draw

74%

Erbil or Al Minaa Basra

72%

Draw or Al Minaa Basra

54%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+

22%

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals

74%

Erbil 2+ goals

39%

Erbil 3+ goals

15%

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals

61%

Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals

24%

Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)

64%

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 112 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.31 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Erbil defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Erbil scores more

46%

level

28%

Al Minaa Basra scores more

26%

Erbil at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff