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Al Minaa Basra vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2025

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Erbil
Erbil
A. Yas 81' (pen)
S. Temirov 59'
M. Qabeel 35', 24'
9/20/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 2Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Minaa Basra28%
×Draw28%
Erbil44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
0.99
Erbil
1.30

Erbil creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.04
Erbil
1.52

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.08
Erbil
0.93

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
56%
Al Minaa Basra or Erbil
72%
Draw or Erbil
72%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
10%
Erbil wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
63%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
26%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
8%
Erbil 1+ goals
73%
Erbil 2+ goals
37%
Erbil 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
39%
Erbil (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.04 + Erbil defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Erbil attack 1.52 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
28%
level
28%
Erbil scores more
44%

Erbil at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
M. Qabeel
35'
M. Qabeel
59'
S. Temirov
81'
A. YasPenalty
83'
M. Ali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Minaa Basra vs Erbil

Erbil beat Al Minaa Basra 3-1 in Iraqi League on September 20, 2025.

Goals: M. Qabeel (24', 35'), S. Temirov (59'), A. Yas (81' pen).

The match was played at Al Faihaa Stadium in al-Baṣra (Basra).