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Erbaaspor vs Yozgatspor 1959 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Erbaaspor
Erbaaspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yozgatspor 1959
Yozgatspor 1959
10/22/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundErbaa İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Erbaaspor53%
×Draw30%
Yozgatspor 195918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbaaspor
1.27
Yozgatspor 1959
0.61

Erbaaspor creates 108% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Erbaaspor
1.20
Yozgatspor 1959
0.83

allows per match

Erbaaspor
0.40
Yozgatspor 1959
1.33

finishing

Erbaaspor+0.00on par
Yozgatspor 1959+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbaaspor ↓

Yozgatspor 1959 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Erbaaspor or draw
82%
Erbaaspor or Yozgatspor 1959
70%
Draw or Yozgatspor 1959
47%

Winning margin

Erbaaspor wins by 2+
25%
Yozgatspor 1959 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Erbaaspor 1+ goals
72%
Erbaaspor 2+ goals
36%
Erbaaspor 3+ goals
14%
Yozgatspor 1959 1+ goals
46%
Yozgatspor 1959 2+ goals
13%
Yozgatspor 1959 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Erbaaspor (draw refunded)
75%
Yozgatspor 1959 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbaaspor at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Yozgatspor 1959 away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbaaspor attack 1.20 + Yozgatspor 1959 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Yozgatspor 1959 attack 0.83 + Erbaaspor defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Erbaaspor scores more
53%
level
30%
Yozgatspor 1959 scores more
18%

Erbaaspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Erbaaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Erbaaspor 0–1 Yozgatspor 1959

Yozgatspor 1959 beat Erbaaspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 22, 2020.

The match was played at Erbaa İlçe Stadyumu in Erbaa.