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Erbaaspor vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Erbaaspor
Erbaaspor
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
9/3/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundErbaa İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Erbaaspor37%
×Draw26%
Tokat Bld Plevnespor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbaaspor
1.30
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Erbaaspor
1.20
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
2.20

allows per match

Erbaaspor
0.40
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
1.40

finishing

Erbaaspor+0.00on par
Tokat Bld Plevnespor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbaaspor ↓

Tokat Bld Plevnespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Erbaaspor or draw
63%
Erbaaspor or Tokat Bld Plevnespor
74%
Draw or Tokat Bld Plevnespor
63%

Winning margin

Erbaaspor wins by 2+
16%
Tokat Bld Plevnespor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Erbaaspor 1+ goals
73%
Erbaaspor 2+ goals
37%
Erbaaspor 3+ goals
14%
Tokat Bld Plevnespor 1+ goals
73%
Tokat Bld Plevnespor 2+ goals
37%
Tokat Bld Plevnespor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Erbaaspor (draw refunded)
50%
Tokat Bld Plevnespor (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbaaspor at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Tokat Bld Plevnespor away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbaaspor attack 1.20 + Tokat Bld Plevnespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tokat Bld Plevnespor attack 2.20 + Erbaaspor defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Erbaaspor scores more
37%
level
26%
Tokat Bld Plevnespor scores more
37%

Erbaaspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Erbaaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erbaaspor vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor

Erbaaspor and Tokat Bld Plevnespor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 3, 2025.

The match was played at Erbaa İlçe Stadyumu in Erbaa.