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Erbaaspor vs Gümüşhanespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Erbaaspor
Erbaaspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gümüşhanespor
Gümüşhanespor
9/14/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundErbaa İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Erbaaspor53%
×Draw33%
Gümüşhanespor13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbaaspor
1.10
Gümüşhanespor
0.40

Erbaaspor creates 175% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Erbaaspor
1.20
Gümüşhanespor
0.40

allows per match

Erbaaspor
0.40
Gümüşhanespor
1.00

finishing

Erbaaspor+0.00on par
Gümüşhanespor+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbaaspor ↓

Gümüşhanespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Erbaaspor or draw
87%
Erbaaspor or Gümüşhanespor
67%
Draw or Gümüşhanespor
47%

Winning margin

Erbaaspor wins by 2+
23%
Gümüşhanespor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Erbaaspor 1+ goals
67%
Erbaaspor 2+ goals
30%
Erbaaspor 3+ goals
10%
Gümüşhanespor 1+ goals
33%
Gümüşhanespor 2+ goals
6%
Gümüşhanespor 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Erbaaspor (draw refunded)
80%
Gümüşhanespor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbaaspor at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Gümüşhanespor away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbaaspor attack 1.20 + Gümüşhanespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gümüşhanespor attack 0.40 + Erbaaspor defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Erbaaspor scores more
53%
level
33%
Gümüşhanespor scores more
13%

Erbaaspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Erbaaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erbaaspor vs Gümüşhanespor

Gümüşhanespor beat Erbaaspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Erbaa İlçe Stadyumu in Erbaa.