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Equity Bank vs Vihiga United FC — Super League 2018

Equity Bank
Equity Bank
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
12/21/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Equity Bank59%
×Draw24%
Vihiga United FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Equity Bank
1.66
Vihiga United FC
0.74

Equity Bank creates 124% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

creates per match

Equity Bank
1.53
Vihiga United FC
0.80

allows per match

Equity Bank
0.68
Vihiga United FC
1.78

finishing

Equity Bank+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equity Bank ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Equity Bank or draw
84%
Equity Bank or Vihiga United FC
76%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
41%

Winning margin

Equity Bank wins by 2+
33%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Equity Bank 1+ goals
81%
Equity Bank 2+ goals
49%
Equity Bank 3+ goals
23%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
52%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
17%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Equity Bank (draw refunded)
78%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Equity Bank at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Equity Bank attack 1.53 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Equity Bank defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Equity Bank scores more
59%
level
24%
Vihiga United FC scores more
16%

Equity Bank at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Equity Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Equity Bank 2–1 Vihiga United FC

Equity Bank beat Vihiga United FC 2-1 in Super League on December 21, 2025.