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Equatorial Guinea vs Rwanda — Friendlies 2026

Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rwanda
Rwanda
9/23/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Equatorial Guinea28%
×Draw36%
Rwanda36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Equatorial Guinea
0.72
Rwanda
0.85

Rwanda creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea
0.82
Rwanda
0.88

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea
0.82
Rwanda
0.63

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par
Rwanda+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Rwanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–118%
0–28%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw
64%
Equatorial Guinea or Rwanda
64%
Draw or Rwanda
72%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
8%
Rwanda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
51%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
16%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
4%
Rwanda 1+ goals
57%
Rwanda 2+ goals
21%
Rwanda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
44%
Rwanda (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Rwanda away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.82 + Rwanda defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Rwanda attack 0.88 + Equatorial Guinea defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more
28%
level
36%
Rwanda scores more
36%

Rwanda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rwanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Equatorial Guinea vs Rwanda

Equatorial Guinea and Rwanda drew 0-0 in Friendlies on September 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.