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Equatorial Guinea vs Ivory Coast — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast
1/12/2022Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Stade Omnisport de Douala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Equatorial Guinea34%
×Draw28%
Ivory Coast38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Equatorial Guinea
1.14
Ivory Coast
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea
1.00
Ivory Coast
1.45

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea
1.00
Ivory Coast
1.27

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par
Ivory Coast+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Ivory Coast →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw
62%
Equatorial Guinea or Ivory Coast
72%
Draw or Ivory Coast
66%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
14%
Ivory Coast wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
68%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
32%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
11%
Ivory Coast 1+ goals
71%
Ivory Coast 2+ goals
35%
Ivory Coast 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
47%
Ivory Coast (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Ivory Coast away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 1.00 + Ivory Coast defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ivory Coast attack 1.45 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more
34%
level
28%
Ivory Coast scores more
38%

Ivory Coast at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ivory Coast will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Equatorial Guinea 0–1 Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast beat Equatorial Guinea 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport de Douala in Douala.