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Equatorial Guinea vs Guinea — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guinea
Guineaadvanced
1/28/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Round of 16Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Equatorial Guinea38%
×Draw30%
Guinea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Equatorial Guinea
1.09
Guinea
0.96

Equatorial Guinea creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea
1.00
Guinea
0.91

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea
1.00
Guinea
1.18

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw
69%
Equatorial Guinea or Guinea
70%
Draw or Guinea
62%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
15%
Guinea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
66%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
30%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
10%
Guinea 1+ goals
62%
Guinea 2+ goals
25%
Guinea 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
55%
Guinea (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 1.00 + Guinea defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Guinea attack 0.91 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more
38%
level
30%
Guinea scores more
31%

Equatorial Guinea at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Equatorial Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Equatorial Guinea 0–1 Guinea

Guinea beat Equatorial Guinea 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara in Abidjan.