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Equatorial Guinea vs Djibouti — Friendlies 2026

Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Djibouti
Djibouti
1/9/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Nuevo Estadio de Malabo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Equatorial Guinea68%
×Draw18%
Djibouti14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Equatorial Guinea
2.29
Djibouti
0.91

Equatorial Guinea creates 152% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea
0.82
Djibouti
1.00

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea
0.82
Djibouti
3.75

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par
Djibouti+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Djibouti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw
86%
Equatorial Guinea or Djibouti
82%
Draw or Djibouti
32%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
45%
Djibouti wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
90%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
66%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
40%
Djibouti 1+ goals
60%
Djibouti 2+ goals
23%
Djibouti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
83%
Djibouti (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Djibouti away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.82 + Djibouti defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.29

Djibouti attack 1.00 + Equatorial Guinea defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more
68%
level
18%
Djibouti scores more
14%

Equatorial Guinea at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Equatorial Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Equatorial Guinea 1–1 Djibouti

Equatorial Guinea and Djibouti drew 1-1 in Friendlies on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio de Malabo in Malabo.