Equatorial Guinea 1–1 Cameroon: Result & Stats

Equatorial Guinea

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cameroon

6/9/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Equatorial Guinea30%

×Draw35%

Cameroon35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Equatorial GuineaExpected goals in this matchCameroon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

0.86

Equatorial Guinea

0.77

Cameroon

0.86

Cameroon creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.82

creates per match

0.91

0.82

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea

0.82

Cameroon

0.91

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea

0.82

Cameroon

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Cameroon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Cameroon →

0–020%

0–117%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw

65%

Equatorial Guinea or Cameroon

65%

Draw or Cameroon

70%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+

Cameroon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals

54%

Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals

18%

Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals

Cameroon 1+ goals

58%

Cameroon 2+ goals

21%

Cameroon 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)

46%

Cameroon (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Cameroon away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.82 + Cameroon defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Cameroon attack 0.91 + Equatorial Guinea defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 35%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more

30%

level

35%

Cameroon scores more

35%

Cameroon at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Cameroon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff