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Equatorial Guinea vs Cambodia — Friendlies 2026

Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
FT
2 – 0
Cambodia
Cambodia
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Equatorial Guinea57%
×Draw26%
Cambodia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Equatorial Guinea
1.53
Cambodia
0.72

Equatorial Guinea creates 113% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea
0.82
Cambodia
0.63

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea
0.82
Cambodia
2.25

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par
Cambodia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Cambodia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw
82%
Equatorial Guinea or Cambodia
74%
Draw or Cambodia
43%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
30%
Cambodia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
78%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
45%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
20%
Cambodia 1+ goals
51%
Cambodia 2+ goals
16%
Cambodia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
76%
Cambodia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Cambodia away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.82 + Cambodia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cambodia attack 0.63 + Equatorial Guinea defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more
57%
level
26%
Cambodia scores more
18%

Equatorial Guinea at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Equatorial Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Equatorial Guinea vs Cambodia

Equatorial Guinea beat Cambodia 2-0 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.