Equatorial Guinea 0–0 Angola: Result & Stats

Equatorial Guinea

0 – 0

Angola

3/29/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Estádio Municipal de Óbidos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Equatorial Guinea36%

×Draw37%

Angola27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Equatorial GuineaExpected goals in this matchAngola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

0.66

Equatorial Guinea

0.82

Angola

0.66

Equatorial Guinea creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

0.82

creates per match

0.50

0.82

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea

0.82

Angola

0.50

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea

0.82

Angola

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Angola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Angola →

0–023%

0–115%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw

73%

Equatorial Guinea or Angola

63%

Draw or Angola

64%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+

12%

Angola wins by 2+

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals

56%

Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals

20%

Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals

Angola 1+ goals

48%

Angola 2+ goals

14%

Angola 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)

57%

Angola (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Angola away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.82 + Angola defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Angola attack 0.50 + Equatorial Guinea defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more

36%

level

37%

Angola scores more

27%

Equatorial Guinea at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Equatorial Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff