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EPS vs VIFK — Ykkönen 2018

EPS
EPS
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
VIFK
VIFK
9/14/2024YkkönenYkkönen · Relegation Round - 1Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

EPS49%
×Draw21%
VIFK30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EPS
2.16
VIFK
1.65

EPS creates 31% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

EPS
1.89
VIFK
1.64

allows per match

EPS
1.67
VIFK
2.43

finishing

EPS+0.00on par
VIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EPS ↓

VIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

EPS or draw
70%
EPS or VIFK
79%
Draw or VIFK
51%

Winning margin

EPS wins by 2+
29%
VIFK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

EPS 1+ goals
88%
EPS 2+ goals
63%
EPS 3+ goals
36%
VIFK 1+ goals
81%
VIFK 2+ goals
49%
VIFK 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

EPS (draw refunded)
62%
VIFK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EPS at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

VIFK away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EPS attack 1.89 + VIFK defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.16

VIFK attack 1.64 + EPS defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

EPS scores more
49%
level
21%
VIFK scores more
30%

EPS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "EPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EPS 3 – 2 VIFK

EPS beat VIFK 3-2 in Ykkönen on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 in Espoo.