Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

EPS vs Mariehamn — Suomen Cup 2018

EPS
EPS
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
5/25/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundEspoonlahden tekonurmi 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

EPS9%
×Draw14%
Mariehamn77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EPS
0.90
Mariehamn
2.83

Mariehamn creates 214% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 25 away

creates per match

EPS
0.75
Mariehamn
2.40

allows per match

EPS
3.25
Mariehamn
1.04

finishing

EPS+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EPS ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

EPS or draw
23%
EPS or Mariehamn
86%
Draw or Mariehamn
91%

Winning margin

EPS wins by 2+
3%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

EPS 1+ goals
59%
EPS 2+ goals
23%
EPS 3+ goals
6%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
94%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
77%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

EPS (draw refunded)
11%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EPS at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EPS attack 0.75 + Mariehamn defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Mariehamn attack 2.40 + EPS defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

EPS scores more
9%
level
14%
Mariehamn scores more
77%

Mariehamn at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EPS vs Mariehamn

Mariehamn beat EPS 3-0 in Suomen Cup on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 in Espoo.