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EPS vs Haka — Suomen Cup 2018

EPS
EPS
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Haka
Hakaadvanced
5/13/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 32Espoonlahden urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

EPS8%
×Draw13%
Haka80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EPS
0.78
Haka
2.87

Haka creates 268% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 25 away

creates per match

EPS
0.75
Haka
2.48

allows per match

EPS
3.25
Haka
0.80

finishing

EPS+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EPS ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

EPS or draw
20%
EPS or Haka
87%
Draw or Haka
92%

Winning margin

EPS wins by 2+
2%
Haka wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

EPS 1+ goals
54%
EPS 2+ goals
18%
EPS 3+ goals
4%
Haka 1+ goals
94%
Haka 2+ goals
77%
Haka 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

EPS (draw refunded)
9%
Haka (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EPS at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Haka away — creates 2.48, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EPS attack 0.75 + Haka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Haka attack 2.48 + EPS defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

EPS scores more
8%
level
13%
Haka scores more
80%

Haka at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EPS vs Haka

Haka beat EPS 4-0 in Suomen Cup on May 13, 2026.

The match was played at Espoonlahden urheilupuisto in Espoo.