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EPS vs Gnistan — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

EPS
EPS
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gnistan
Gnistan
7/13/2019Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 11Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 (Espoo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

EPS22%
×Draw21%
Gnistan57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EPS
1.21
Gnistan
2.07

Gnistan creates 71% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 11 away

creates per match

EPS
1.88
Gnistan
2.73

allows per match

EPS
1.41
Gnistan
0.55

finishing

EPS+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EPS ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

EPS or draw
43%
EPS or Gnistan
79%
Draw or Gnistan
78%

Winning margin

EPS wins by 2+
9%
Gnistan wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

EPS 1+ goals
70%
EPS 2+ goals
34%
EPS 3+ goals
12%
Gnistan 1+ goals
87%
Gnistan 2+ goals
61%
Gnistan 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

EPS (draw refunded)
28%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EPS at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Gnistan away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EPS attack 1.88 + Gnistan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.21

Gnistan attack 2.73 + EPS defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

EPS scores more
22%
level
21%
Gnistan scores more
57%

Gnistan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EPS 0 – 1 Gnistan

Gnistan beat EPS 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 (Espoo).