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EPS II vs PPJ / Lauttasaari — Suomen Cup 2018

EPS II
EPS II
FT
3 – 1
PPJ / Lauttasaari
PPJ / Lauttasaari
2/24/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundEspoonlahden tekonurmi 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

EPS II20%
×Draw15%
PPJ / Lauttasaari65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EPS II
1.98
PPJ / Lauttasaari
3.50

PPJ / Lauttasaari creates 77% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

EPS II
2.20
PPJ / Lauttasaari
5.00

allows per match

EPS II
2.00
PPJ / Lauttasaari
1.75

finishing

EPS II+0.00on par
PPJ / Lauttasaari+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EPS II ↓

PPJ / Lauttasaari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

EPS II or draw
35%
EPS II or PPJ / Lauttasaari
85%
Draw or PPJ / Lauttasaari
80%

Winning margin

EPS II wins by 2+
9%
PPJ / Lauttasaari wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

EPS II 1+ goals
86%
EPS II 2+ goals
59%
EPS II 3+ goals
31%
PPJ / Lauttasaari 1+ goals
97%
PPJ / Lauttasaari 2+ goals
85%
PPJ / Lauttasaari 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

EPS II (draw refunded)
24%
PPJ / Lauttasaari (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EPS II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

PPJ / Lauttasaari away — creates 5.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EPS II attack 2.20 + PPJ / Lauttasaari defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.98

PPJ / Lauttasaari attack 5.00 + EPS II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

EPS II scores more
20%
level
15%
PPJ / Lauttasaari scores more
65%

PPJ / Lauttasaari at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "PPJ / Lauttasaari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: EPS II 3–1 PPJ / Lauttasaari

EPS II beat PPJ / Lauttasaari 3-1 in Suomen Cup on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 in Espoo.