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EPS II vs Kontu — Suomen Cup 2018

EPS II
EPS II
FT
4 – 0
Kontu
Kontu
4/2/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundEspoonlahden tekonurmi 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

EPS II9%
×Draw10%
Kontu81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EPS II
1.73
Kontu
4.75

Kontu creates 175% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

EPS II
2.20
Kontu
7.50

allows per match

EPS II
2.00
Kontu
1.25

finishing

EPS II+0.00on par
Kontu+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EPS II ↓

Kontu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–44%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (7%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
86%14%4.5
72%28%

Double chance

EPS II or draw
19%
EPS II or Kontu
90%
Draw or Kontu
91%

Winning margin

EPS II wins by 2+
4%
Kontu wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

EPS II 1+ goals
82%
EPS II 2+ goals
52%
EPS II 3+ goals
25%
Kontu 1+ goals
99%
Kontu 2+ goals
94%
Kontu 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

EPS II (draw refunded)
10%
Kontu (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EPS II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Kontu away — creates 7.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EPS II attack 2.20 + Kontu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kontu attack 7.50 + EPS II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 4.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

EPS II scores more
9%
level
10%
Kontu scores more
81%

Kontu at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Kontu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EPS II 4 – 0 Kontu

EPS II beat Kontu 4-0 in Suomen Cup on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 in Espoo.