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EPS II vs GrIFK U23 — Suomen Cup 2018

EPS II
EPS II
FT
3 – 2
GrIFK U23
GrIFK U23
3/28/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundEspoonlahden tekonurmi 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

EPS II51%
×Draw21%
GrIFK U2328%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EPS II
2.10
GrIFK U23
1.50

EPS II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

EPS II
2.20
GrIFK U23
1.00

allows per match

EPS II
2.00
GrIFK U23
2.00

finishing

EPS II+0.00on par
GrIFK U23+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EPS II ↓

GrIFK U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

EPS II or draw
72%
EPS II or GrIFK U23
79%
Draw or GrIFK U23
49%

Winning margin

EPS II wins by 2+
30%
GrIFK U23 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

EPS II 1+ goals
88%
EPS II 2+ goals
62%
EPS II 3+ goals
35%
GrIFK U23 1+ goals
78%
GrIFK U23 2+ goals
44%
GrIFK U23 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

EPS II (draw refunded)
65%
GrIFK U23 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EPS II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

GrIFK U23 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EPS II attack 2.20 + GrIFK U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

GrIFK U23 attack 1.00 + EPS II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

EPS II scores more
51%
level
21%
GrIFK U23 scores more
28%

EPS II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "EPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: EPS II 3–2 GrIFK U23

EPS II beat GrIFK U23 3-2 in Suomen Cup on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 in Espoo.