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Eppelborn vs Viktoria Herxheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Eppelborn
Eppelborn
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
11/2/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 15Illtalstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eppelborn48%
×Draw20%
Viktoria Herxheim32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eppelborn
2.31
Viktoria Herxheim
1.89

Eppelborn creates 22% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eppelborn
1.62
Viktoria Herxheim
1.12

allows per match

Eppelborn
2.66
Viktoria Herxheim
3.00

finishing

Eppelborn+0.00on par
Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eppelborn ↓

Viktoria Herxheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Eppelborn or draw
68%
Eppelborn or Viktoria Herxheim
80%
Draw or Viktoria Herxheim
52%

Winning margin

Eppelborn wins by 2+
28%
Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Eppelborn 1+ goals
90%
Eppelborn 2+ goals
67%
Eppelborn 3+ goals
40%
Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
85%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
56%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Eppelborn (draw refunded)
60%
Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eppelborn at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.66 · 50 matches

Viktoria Herxheim away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eppelborn attack 1.62 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.12 + Eppelborn defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eppelborn scores more
48%
level
20%
Viktoria Herxheim scores more
32%

Eppelborn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eppelborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Eppelborn 1–3 Viktoria Herxheim

Viktoria Herxheim beat Eppelborn 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Illtalstadion in Eppelborn.