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Eppelborn vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Eppelborn
Eppelborn
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
R. Kazik 50'
J. Peters 33'
4/26/2025Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 29Illtalstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Eppelborn25%
×Draw20%
TuS Koblenz55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eppelborn
1.48
TuS Koblenz
2.25

TuS Koblenz creates 52% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 60 away

creates per match

Eppelborn
1.62
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

Eppelborn
2.66
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

Eppelborn+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eppelborn ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Eppelborn or draw
45%
Eppelborn or TuS Koblenz
80%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
75%

Winning margin

Eppelborn wins by 2+
11%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Eppelborn 1+ goals
77%
Eppelborn 2+ goals
43%
Eppelborn 3+ goals
19%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
89%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
65%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Eppelborn (draw refunded)
31%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eppelborn at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.66 · 50 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eppelborn attack 1.62 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Eppelborn defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eppelborn scores more
25%
level
20%
TuS Koblenz scores more
55%

TuS Koblenz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
J. Peters
50'
R. Kazik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Eppelborn 2–0 TuS Koblenz

Eppelborn beat TuS Koblenz 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on April 26, 2025.

Goals: J. Peters (33'), R. Kazik (50').

The match was played at Illtalstadion in Eppelborn.