Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka — Persha Liga 2019

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
4/7/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Championship Round - 3Stadion im. H.A. Tonkocheieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi48%
×Draw25%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.56
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.10

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 41 away

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.84
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.05

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.16
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.27

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par
Viktoriya Mykolaivka+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Viktoriya Mykolaivka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw
73%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Viktoriya Mykolaivka
75%
Draw or Viktoriya Mykolaivka
52%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
25%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
79%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
46%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
21%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1+ goals
67%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2+ goals
30%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
64%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Viktoriya Mykolaivka away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.84 + Viktoriya Mykolaivka defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.56

Viktoriya Mykolaivka attack 1.05 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
48%
level
25%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka scores more
27%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3–1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Viktoriya Mykolaivka 3-1 in Persha Liga on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. H.A. Tonkocheieva in Kamianets-Podilskyi.