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Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Prykarpattia — Persha Liga 2019

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Prykarpattia
Prykarpattia
11/18/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 17Stadion im. H.A. Tonkocheieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi50%
×Draw24%
Prykarpattia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.70
Prykarpattia
1.14

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 49% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 91 away

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.84
Prykarpattia
1.11

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.16
Prykarpattia
1.56

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par
Prykarpattia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Prykarpattia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw
74%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Prykarpattia
76%
Draw or Prykarpattia
50%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
27%
Prykarpattia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
82%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
51%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
24%
Prykarpattia 1+ goals
68%
Prykarpattia 2+ goals
32%
Prykarpattia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
66%
Prykarpattia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Prykarpattia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.84 + Prykarpattia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

Prykarpattia attack 1.11 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
50%
level
24%
Prykarpattia scores more
26%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Prykarpattia

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Prykarpattia drew 1-1 in Persha Liga on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. H.A. Tonkocheieva in Kamianets-Podilskyi.