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Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Pakhtakor — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
A. Matkevych 78'
J. Ceberio 40'
2/12/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi65%
×Draw22%
Pakhtakor13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.83
Pakhtakor
0.68

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 169% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2.38
Pakhtakor
0.86

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.50
Pakhtakor
1.29

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par
Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Pakhtakor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw
87%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Pakhtakor
78%
Draw or Pakhtakor
35%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
38%
Pakhtakor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
84%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
54%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
28%
Pakhtakor 1+ goals
49%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
15%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
83%
Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 2.38 + Pakhtakor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Pakhtakor attack 0.86 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
65%
level
22%
Pakhtakor scores more
13%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
J. Ceberio
78'
A. Matkevych
Epitsentr
Pakhtakor
Sergiy Nagornyak
Manager: Sergiy Nagornyak
Pedro Moreira
Manager: Pedro Moreira

Match Recap: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Pakhtakor

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Pakhtakor 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 12, 2026.

Goals: J. Ceberio (40'), A. Matkevych (78').