Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–1 Nyva Ternopil

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nyva Ternopil

I. Bendera 63'

V. Sydun 7'

10/4/2024

Persha Liga · Round 10Stadion im. H.A. Tonkocheieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi50%

×Draw25%

Nyva Ternopil25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Epitsentr DunayivtsiExpected goals in this matchNyva Ternopil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.06

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.60

Nyva Ternopil

1.06

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 51% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 79 away

1.84

creates per match

0.97

1.16

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.84

Nyva Ternopil

0.97

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.16

Nyva Ternopil

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Nyva Ternopil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw

75%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Nyva Ternopil

75%

Draw or Nyva Ternopil

50%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

26%

Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

80%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

47%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

22%

Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals

65%

Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals

29%

Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

66%

Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Nyva Ternopil away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.84 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

Nyva Ternopil attack 0.97 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

50%

level

25%

Nyva Ternopil scores more

25%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

V. Sydun

26'

A. Kukharuk

29'

I. Gatala

46'

I. Bendera← M. Protsiv

63'

I. Bendera

64'

V. Ravlyk← O. Klymets

66'

V. Krystin← V. Tanchyk

68'

M. Mykhailenko← B. Vyshynskyi

74'

R. Posievkin← A. Doroshenko

74'

78'

82'

83'

83'

86'

Y. Zaporozhets← A. Bejenari

Epitsentr

Nyva

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Nahorniak

46'▲I. Bendera←▼M. Protsiv

64'▲V. Ravlyk←▼O. Klymets

66'▲V. Krystin←▼V. Tanchyk

86'▲Y. Zaporozhets←▼A. Bejenari

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi substitutes

BenderaRavlykKrystinZaporozhetsLiashenkoPavluchenkoBushniakSavchukPoliuliakhZhmuida

Manager: Y. Kalynychenko

68'▲M. Mykhailenko←▼B. Vyshynskyi

74'▲R. Posievkin←▼A. Doroshenko

74'▲V. Napuda←▼A. Riznyk

83'▲M. Kytsun←▼I. Hatala

83'▲V. Tanchak←▼B. Kozak

Nyva Ternopil substitutes

MykhailenkoPosievkinNapudaKytsunTanchakBatsPezhynskyiVadovskyiZhupanskyi

Match Recap: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Nyva Ternopil

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Nyva Ternopil drew 1-1 in Persha Liga on October 4, 2024.

Goals: V. Sydun (7'), I. Bendera (63').

The match was played at Stadion im. H.A. Tonkocheieva in Kamianets-Podilskyi.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Nyva Ternopil — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Nyva Ternopil