Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3–2 Karpaty: Result & Stats

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Karpaty

11/5/2023

Persha Liga · Round 15Stadion im. H.A. Tonkocheieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi38%

×Draw27%

Karpaty35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Epitsentr DunayivtsiExpected goals in this matchKarpaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.22

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.30

Karpaty

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 25 away

1.84

creates per match

1.28

1.16

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.84

Karpaty

1.28

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.16

Karpaty

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Karpaty+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Karpaty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw

65%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Karpaty

73%

Draw or Karpaty

62%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

17%

Karpaty wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

73%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

37%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

14%

Karpaty 1+ goals

70%

Karpaty 2+ goals

34%

Karpaty 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

53%

Karpaty (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.84 + Karpaty defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.30

Karpaty attack 1.28 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

38%

level

27%

Karpaty scores more

35%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff