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Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kalush — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
CANC
14:00
Kalush
Kalush
9/6/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 1Stadion Kolos Dunaivtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi43%
×Draw30%
Kalush27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.19
Kalush
0.88

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.68
Kalush
1.20

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.55
Kalush
0.70

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par
Kalush+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Kalush →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw
73%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Kalush
70%
Draw or Kalush
57%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
19%
Kalush wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
70%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
33%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
12%
Kalush 1+ goals
59%
Kalush 2+ goals
22%
Kalush 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
61%
Kalush (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Kalush away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.68 + Kalush defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

Kalush attack 1.20 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
43%
level
30%
Kalush scores more
27%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi host Kalush

September 6, 2020: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi take on Kalush in Druha Liga - Group A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi host Kalush at Stadion Kolos Dunaivtsi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.