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Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
2/8/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi69%
×Draw21%
FK Tobol Kostanay10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.50

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 262% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2.38
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.50

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.50
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.25

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par
FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw
90%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or FK Tobol Kostanay
79%
Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay
31%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
42%
FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
84%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
54%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
27%
FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
39%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
9%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
88%
FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 2.38 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.81

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 0.50 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
69%
level
21%
FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
10%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Epitsentr
FK
Sergiy Nagornyak
Manager: Sergiy Nagornyak
Nurbol Zhumaskaliyev
Manager: Nurbol Zhumaskaliyev

Match Recap: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FK Tobol Kostanay

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat FK Tobol Kostanay 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 8, 2026.