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Epinal vs Estac Troyes — Coupe de France 2018

Epinal
Epinal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
11/18/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade de la Colombière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Epinal30%
×Draw25%
Estac Troyes45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Epinal
1.21
Estac Troyes
1.54

Estac Troyes creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Epinal
1.50
Estac Troyes
1.58

allows per match

Epinal
1.50
Estac Troyes
0.92

finishing

Epinal+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epinal ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Epinal or draw
55%
Epinal or Estac Troyes
75%
Draw or Estac Troyes
70%

Winning margin

Epinal wins by 2+
12%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Epinal 1+ goals
70%
Epinal 2+ goals
34%
Epinal 3+ goals
12%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
79%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
45%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Epinal (draw refunded)
40%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epinal at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epinal attack 1.50 + Estac Troyes defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Estac Troyes attack 1.58 + Epinal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Epinal scores more
30%
level
25%
Estac Troyes scores more
45%

Estac Troyes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Epinal vs Estac Troyes

Epinal beat Estac Troyes 2-1 in Coupe de France on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Colombière in Épinal.