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Épila vs Valdefierro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Épila
Épila
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valdefierro
Valdefierro
5/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Épila63%
×Draw24%
Valdefierro13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Épila
1.68
Valdefierro
0.61

Épila creates 175% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 31 away

creates per match

Épila
1.20
Valdefierro
0.45

allows per match

Épila
0.77
Valdefierro
2.16

finishing

Épila+0.00on par
Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Épila ↓

Valdefierro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Épila or draw
87%
Épila or Valdefierro
76%
Draw or Valdefierro
37%

Winning margin

Épila wins by 2+
36%
Valdefierro wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Épila 1+ goals
81%
Épila 2+ goals
50%
Épila 3+ goals
24%
Valdefierro 1+ goals
46%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
13%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Épila (draw refunded)
83%
Valdefierro (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Épila at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Épila attack 1.20 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.68

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Épila defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Épila scores more
63%
level
24%
Valdefierro scores more
13%

Épila at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Épila vs Valdefierro

Épila beat Valdefierro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Huerta in Épila.