Épila vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 24+ matches
Épila62%
San Juan Mozarrifar14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Épila creates 169% more chances
Season form · 100 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No63
- Yes37
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Épila ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Épila at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches
San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Épila attack 1.20 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.64
San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Épila defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.61
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Épila at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Atlético Monzón
Cuarte
CalamochaÉpila
Caspe
Huesca II
Binéfar
La Almunia
Almudévar
CDJ Tamarite
Andorra CF
Illueca
Robres
Belchite 97
Cariñena
UD Casetas
Utrillas
ZueraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Épila host San Juan Mozarrifar on Sunday, 4 April 2021 at 00:00. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Épila vs San Juan Mozarrifar
Épila beat San Juan Mozarrifar 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 4, 2021.