Épila 2–1 Illueca: Result & Stats

Épila

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Illueca

2/8/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Épila45%

×Draw28%

Illueca27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÉpilaExpected goals in this matchIllueca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.94

Épila

1.31

Illueca

0.94

Épila creates 39% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 93 away

1.20

creates per match

1.10

0.77

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Épila

1.20

Illueca

1.10

allows per match

Épila

0.77

Illueca

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Épila+0.00on par

Illueca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Épila ↓

Illueca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Épila or draw

73%

Épila or Illueca

72%

Draw or Illueca

55%

Winning margin

Épila wins by 2+

21%

Illueca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Épila 1+ goals

73%

Épila 2+ goals

38%

Épila 3+ goals

14%

Illueca 1+ goals

61%

Illueca 2+ goals

24%

Illueca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Épila (draw refunded)

63%

Illueca (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Épila at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

Illueca away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Épila attack 1.20 + Illueca defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Illueca attack 1.10 + Épila defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Épila scores more

45%

level

28%

Illueca scores more

27%

Épila at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff