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Épila vs Binéfar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Épila
Épila
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Binéfar
Binéfar
3/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 27Estadio La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Épila40%
×Draw29%
Binéfar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Épila
1.21
Binéfar
1.02

Épila creates 19% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 111 away

creates per match

Épila
1.20
Binéfar
1.27

allows per match

Épila
0.77
Binéfar
1.21

finishing

Épila+0.00on par
Binéfar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Épila ↓

Binéfar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Épila or draw
69%
Épila or Binéfar
71%
Draw or Binéfar
60%

Winning margin

Épila wins by 2+
17%
Binéfar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Épila 1+ goals
70%
Épila 2+ goals
34%
Épila 3+ goals
12%
Binéfar 1+ goals
64%
Binéfar 2+ goals
27%
Binéfar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Épila (draw refunded)
57%
Binéfar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Épila at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

Binéfar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Épila attack 1.20 + Binéfar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Binéfar attack 1.27 + Épila defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Épila scores more
40%
level
29%
Binéfar scores more
31%

Épila at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Épila 1–0 Binéfar

Épila beat Binéfar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Huerta in Épila.