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Épila vs Belchite 97 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Épila
Épila
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Belchite 97
Belchite 97
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 3Estadio La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Épila45%
×Draw30%
Belchite 9725%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Épila
1.19
Belchite 97
0.82

Épila creates 45% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 95 away

creates per match

Épila
1.20
Belchite 97
0.87

allows per match

Épila
0.77
Belchite 97
1.18

finishing

Épila+0.00on par
Belchite 97+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Épila ↓

Belchite 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Épila or draw
75%
Épila or Belchite 97
70%
Draw or Belchite 97
55%

Winning margin

Épila wins by 2+
19%
Belchite 97 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Épila 1+ goals
70%
Épila 2+ goals
33%
Épila 3+ goals
12%
Belchite 97 1+ goals
56%
Belchite 97 2+ goals
20%
Belchite 97 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Épila (draw refunded)
64%
Belchite 97 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Épila at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

Belchite 97 away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.18 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Épila attack 1.20 + Belchite 97 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Belchite 97 attack 0.87 + Épila defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Épila scores more
45%
level
30%
Belchite 97 scores more
25%

Épila at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Épila 0–2 Belchite 97

Belchite 97 beat Épila 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Huerta in Épila.